FIFA WORLD CUP 2026
Progression Chances
Each team's probability of reaching each stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, based on 10,000 simulations.
Updated June 25, 2026
Current
| Team | RatingRating | TiltTilt | Gr.Group | Win Group | Reach R32 | Reach R16 | Reach QF | Reach SF | Reach Final | Champ.Champion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | ArgentinaARG 2-0-0 | 98.2 | -3.5 | J | ✓ | ✓ | 88.9% | 71.4% | 49.1% | 31.6% | 20.1% |
 | SpainESP 1-1-0 | 97.6 | +1.5 | H | 82.9% | >99.9% | 77.6% | 50.9% | 39.2% | 26.0% | 15.0% |
 | BrazilBRA 2-1-0 | 96.6 | -1.3 | C | ✓ | ✓ | 69.3% | 48.4% | 31.1% | 16.3% | 9.3% |
 | FranceFRA 2-0-0 | 95.8 | -1.3 | I | 75.9% | ✓ | 80.0% | 48.0% | 31.7% | 17.2% | 8.9% |
 | PortugalPOR 1-1-0 | 95.7 | +1.2 | K | 36.9% | >99.9% | 77.3% | 45.2% | 26.9% | 15.4% | 7.9% |
 | EnglandENG 1-1-0 | 96.1 | -3.0 | L | 83.6% | >99.9% | 76.3% | 45.9% | 26.4% | 13.4% | 7.2% |
 | ColombiaCOL 2-0-0 | 95.0 | -4.6 | K | 63.1% | ✓ | 76.9% | 47.5% | 24.3% | 13.0% | 6.4% |
 | GermanyGER 2-0-0 | 93.3 | +7.2 | E | ✓ | ✓ | 74.8% | 37.6% | 22.7% | 11.0% | 4.6% |
 | NetherlandsNED 1-1-0 | 93.0 | +4.2 | F | 64.1% | >99.9% | 48.9% | 35.5% | 17.5% | 8.1% | 3.5% |
 | NorwayNOR 2-0-0 | 90.9 | +3.9 | I | 24.1% | ✓ | 73.8% | 30.3% | 15.2% | 6.0% | 2.5% |
 | MoroccoMAR 2-1-0 | 90.6 | -6.6 | C | ✕ | ✓ | 46.7% | 32.9% | 14.2% | 6.2% | 2.3% |
 | USAUSA 2-0-0 | 81.5 | +3.5 | D | ✓ | ✓ | 83.3% | 50.5% | 16.4% | 7.0% | 2.3% |
 | BelgiumBEL 0-2-0 | 91.2 | +3.7 | G | 32.2% | 91.9% | 62.1% | 26.0% | 10.8% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
 | MexicoMEX 3-0-0 | 88.2 | -3.6 | A | ✓ | ✓ | 70.0% | 36.3% | 13.1% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
 | JapanJPN 1-1-0 | 90.2 | -0.2 | F | 30.6% | >99.9% | 38.5% | 22.2% | 10.3% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
 | SwitzerlandSUI 2-1-0 | 89.0 | +2.1 | B | ✓ | ✓ | 66.2% | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
 | CroatiaCRO 1-0-1 | 87.8 | +0.8 | L | 12.2% | 97.2% | 34.2% | 14.0% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
 | UruguayURU 0-2-0 | 89.5 | -2.0 | H | 14.8% | 40.7% | 18.8% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
 | CanadaCAN 1-1-1 | 82.2 | -1.6 | B | ✕ | ✓ | 70.9% | 22.6% | 6.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
 | AustriaAUT 1-0-1 | 84.6 | +3.4 | J | ✕ | 95.2% | 24.6% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
 | ParaguayPAR 1-0-1 | 82.1 | -3.7 | D | ✕ | 82.6% | 29.2% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
 | EcuadorECU 0-1-1 | 87.9 | -3.7 | E | ✕ | 26.5% | 10.7% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
 | South KoreaKOR 1-0-2 | 78.8 | -3.3 | A | ✕ | 91.9% | 39.5% | 15.8% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
 | AustraliaAUS 1-0-1 | 81.3 | -2.7 | D | ✕ | 93.9% | 34.8% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
 | IranIRN 0-2-0 | 80.2 | -4.6 | G | 20.3% | 72.0% | 30.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
 | SwedenSWE 1-0-1 | 80.2 | +4.2 | F | 5.2% | 90.9% | 18.8% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
 | SenegalSEN 0-0-2 | 83.3 | -4.4 | I | ✕ | 55.5% | 17.8% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
 | AlgeriaALG 1-0-1 | 79.2 | +1.8 | J | ✕ | 71.9% | 18.2% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
 | EgyptEGY 1-1-0 | 75.4 | -4.3 | G | 47.5% | >99.9% | 37.0% | 10.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
 | Ivory CoastCIV 1-0-1 | 76.1 | -2.3 | E | ✕ | 95.9% | 22.9% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
 | ScotlandSCO 1-0-2 | 79.1 | +0.5 | C | ✕ | 32.3% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
 | Bosnia and HerzegovinaBIH 1-1-1 | 66.0 | +3.7 | B | ✕ | >99.9% | 16.6% | 4.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 | DR CongoCOD 0-1-1 | 70.5 | -3.3 | K | ✕ | 38.6% | 6.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | South AfricaRSA 1-1-1 | 66.4 | -3.8 | A | ✕ | ✓ | 29.1% | 4.8% | 0.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | GhanaGHA 1-1-0 | 67.8 | -4.1 | L | 4.2% | >99.9% | 12.2% | 2.5% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | Cape VerdeCPV 0-2-0 | 63.3 | -3.7 | H | 2.3% | 66.9% | 4.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | Saudi ArabiaKSA 0-1-1 | 62.4 | -4.4 | H | ✕ | 33.1% | 2.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | New ZealandNZL 0-1-1 | 63.6 | -2.3 | G | ✕ | 8.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | CuracaoCUW 0-1-1 | 50.2 | +0.3 | E | ✕ | 11.0% | 0.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | UzbekistanUZB 0-0-2 | 67.5 | -0.4 | K | ✕ | 2.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | IraqIRQ 0-0-2 | 60.8 | -5.3 | I | ✕ | 1.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 | CzechiaCZE 0-1-2 | 73.1 | +2.5 | A | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | HaitiHTI 0-0-3 | 59.8 | +1.0 | C | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | JordanJOR 0-0-2 | 67.7 | -2.0 | J | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | PanamaPAN 0-0-2 | 68.6 | -0.1 | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | QatarQAT 0-1-2 | 51.5 | +2.9 | B | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | TunisiaTUN 0-0-2 | 68.5 | -3.7 | F | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | TurkeyTUR 0-0-2 | 82.4 | +3.8 | D | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |