FIFA WORLD CUP 2026
Progression Chances
Each team's probability of reaching each stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, based on 10,000 simulations.
Updated April 1, 2026
| Team | Gr.Group | Qualify | Win Group | Reach R32 | Reach R16 | Reach QF | Reach SF | Reach Final | Champ.Champion | OVR.Overall | Att.Attack | Def.Defense | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Spain | H | ✓ | 75.9% | 99.4% | 74.5% | 52.3% | 40.4% | 27.7% | 16.8% | 98.0 | 98.4 | 97.5 |
 | Argentina | J | ✓ | 76.0% | 98.4% | 65.9% | 51.6% | 35.3% | 22.5% | 13.9% | 97.7 | 96.2 | 98.7 |
 | Brazil | C | ✓ | 64.4% | 97.8% | 68.2% | 46.8% | 29.7% | 16.8% | 9.6% | 96.2 | 95.5 | 96.8 |
 | England | L | ✓ | 67.3% | 97.9% | 70.4% | 47.0% | 28.6% | 16.5% | 9.4% | 96.3 | 94.8 | 97.5 |
 | Portugal | K | ✓ | 52.7% | 96.6% | 70.7% | 44.4% | 26.3% | 15.5% | 8.1% | 95.7 | 96.1 | 95.4 |
 | France | I | ✓ | 57.0% | 95.6% | 69.9% | 44.6% | 28.3% | 15.4% | 8.0% | 95.8 | 94.9 | 96.5 |
 | Colombia | K | ✓ | 42.2% | 94.5% | 64.9% | 37.9% | 22.1% | 12.7% | 6.8% | 94.9 | 91.9 | 97.1 |
 | Netherlands | F | ✓ | 51.3% | 92.1% | 49.7% | 33.4% | 18.3% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 93.0 | 95.3 | 90.1 |
 | Germany | E | ✓ | 57.9% | 98.3% | 63.7% | 33.0% | 18.4% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 92.7 | 97.2 | 85.7 |
 | Belgium | G | ✓ | 63.1% | 95.0% | 66.1% | 38.5% | 15.2% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 91.2 | 94.1 | 87.6 |
 | Uruguay | H | ✓ | 22.5% | 93.7% | 42.3% | 23.6% | 12.1% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 90.7 | 88.9 | 92.4 |
 | Ecuador | E | ✓ | 34.3% | 94.7% | 52.0% | 23.2% | 10.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 89.6 | 87.1 | 91.9 |
 | Morocco | C | ✓ | 25.4% | 89.0% | 45.2% | 25.4% | 11.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 89.9 | 82.3 | 95.3 |
 | Norway | I | ✓ | 27.4% | 87.5% | 49.7% | 24.2% | 11.8% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 90.3 | 92.8 | 87.4 |
 | Switzerland | B | ✓ | 50.4% | 97.2% | 64.9% | 27.8% | 11.1% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 89.0 | 90.4 | 87.6 |
 | Croatia | L | ✓ | 26.7% | 89.6% | 43.1% | 19.7% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 89.2 | 89.3 | 89.1 |
 | Japan | F | ✓ | 30.8% | 82.3% | 35.5% | 19.4% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 89.2 | 89.0 | 89.5 |
 | USA | D | ✓ | 33.8% | 78.4% | 47.0% | 20.6% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 79.1 | 82.4 | 75.6 |
 | Mexico | A | ✓ | 55.9% | 93.3% | 57.3% | 25.7% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 84.5 | 80.6 | 87.9 |
 | Senegal | I | ✓ | 14.2% | 73.6% | 32.4% | 13.6% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 85.3 | 79.5 | 90.1 |
 | Canada | B | ✓ | 43.2% | 95.7% | 57.2% | 21.3% | 5.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 81.7 | 79.5 | 83.9 |
 | Paraguay | D | ✓ | 22.1% | 66.4% | 34.6% | 12.7% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 82.7 | 78.4 | 86.6 |
 | Turkey | D | ✓ | 25.7% | 68.6% | 35.8% | 13.6% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 83.8 | 87.9 | 79.2 |
 | Austria | J | ✓ | 14.1% | 76.6% | 24.3% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 84.8 | 88.1 | 81.2 |
 | Australia | D | ✓ | 18.3% | 61.8% | 30.9% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 81.6 | 78.7 | 84.2 |
 | South Korea | A | ✓ | 20.7% | 72.3% | 32.1% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 79.1 | 75.5 | 82.5 |
 | Sweden | F | ✓ | 11.8% | 57.5% | 16.2% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 80.5 | 83.9 | 76.7 |
 | Iran | G | ✓ | 19.3% | 73.2% | 32.0% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 79.8 | 74.4 | 84.8 |
 | Algeria | J | ✓ | 7.4% | 59.6% | 15.7% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 79.2 | 81.1 | 77.3 |
 | Scotland | C | ✓ | 9.3% | 67.6% | 22.0% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 79.3 | 80.2 | 78.4 |
 | Czechia | A | ✓ | 17.6% | 68.1% | 28.9% | 8.4% | 2.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 76.8 | 78.8 | 74.9 |
 | Egypt | G | ✓ | 12.1% | 61.5% | 22.4% | 5.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 74.4 | 68.5 | 80.0 |
 | Tunisia | F | ✓ | 6.1% | 38.9% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 74.6 | 68.2 | 80.6 |
 | New Zealand | G | ✓ | 5.5% | 37.9% | 9.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 66.1 | 62.2 | 70.0 |
 | Ivory Coast | E | ✓ | 7.5% | 68.2% | 19.4% | 4.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 74.8 | 72.3 | 77.2 |
 | DR Congo | K | ✓ | 2.5% | 33.3% | 7.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 69.4 | 65.5 | 73.2 |
 | Jordan | J | ✓ | 2.5% | 31.5% | 6.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 69.4 | 66.9 | 71.8 |
 | Uzbekistan | K | ✓ | 2.6% | 35.0% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 70.6 | 69.3 | 71.9 |
 | Panama | L | ✓ | 3.5% | 42.2% | 7.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 70.4 | 70.2 | 70.7 |
 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | ✓ | 5.2% | 53.6% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 66.3 | 70.8 | 61.6 |
 | South Africa | A | ✓ | 5.8% | 38.2% | 10.6% | 2.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 66.0 | 61.7 | 70.2 |
 | Ghana | L | ✓ | 2.5% | 32.5% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 66.1 | 61.8 | 70.5 |
 | Iraq | I | ✓ | 1.3% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 62.3 | 55.1 | 69.6 |
 | Cape Verde | H | ✓ | 0.8% | 25.0% | 3.9% | 0.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 61.0 | 57.0 | 65.0 |
 | Saudi Arabia | H | ✓ | 0.9% | 28.8% | 4.6% | 0.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 62.1 | 56.5 | 67.7 |
 | Qatar | B | ✓ | 1.2% | 19.9% | 2.9% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 53.8 | 57.6 | 50.2 |
 | Haiti | C | ✓ | 0.9% | 16.2% | 2.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 59.8 | 60.9 | 58.7 |
 | Curacao | E | ✓ | 0.4% | 9.0% | 1.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 50.9 | 51.3 | 50.4 |