FIFA WORLD CUP 2026
Progression Chances
Each team's probability of reaching each stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, based on 10,000 simulations.
Updated February 3, 2026
| Team | Gr.Group | Qual.Qualify | Win Group | Reach R32 | Reach R16 | Reach QF | Reach SF | Reach Final | Champ.Champion | OVR.Overall | Att.Attack | Def.Defense | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Spain | H | ✓ | 75.9% | 99.4% | 76.7% | 53.9% | 41.2% | 28.8% | 18.0% | 98.1 | 98.5 | 97.6 |
 | Argentina | J | ✓ | 77.2% | 98.3% | 66.3% | 52.1% | 35.2% | 22.5% | 14.1% | 97.8 | 96.3 | 98.9 |
 | England | L | ✓ | 67.3% | 97.8% | 70.6% | 47.6% | 29.9% | 17.1% | 9.7% | 96.6 | 95.0 | 97.9 |
 | Brazil | C | ✓ | 68.2% | 98.1% | 68.9% | 46.9% | 29.8% | 16.4% | 9.3% | 96.2 | 95.3 | 97.0 |
 | Portugal | K | ✓ | 50.6% | 96.7% | 69.0% | 41.8% | 24.5% | 14.5% | 7.4% | 95.6 | 96.0 | 95.2 |
 | France | I | ✓ | 52.7% | 95.0% | 67.9% | 42.6% | 26.9% | 14.2% | 7.3% | 95.5 | 94.4 | 96.5 |
 | Colombia | K | ✓ | 44.3% | 95.4% | 66.4% | 39.4% | 23.2% | 13.0% | 7.0% | 95.5 | 92.3 | 97.7 |
 | Netherlands | F | ✓ | 52.7% | 91.5% | 51.8% | 33.6% | 17.9% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 93.0 | 95.2 | 90.3 |
 | Germany | E | ✓ | 58.6% | 99.0% | 64.2% | 33.1% | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 92.8 | 97.0 | 86.3 |
 | Belgium | G | ✓ | 64.1% | 94.9% | 64.2% | 35.0% | 13.2% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 91.0 | 93.6 | 87.7 |
 | Uruguay | H | ✓ | 22.0% | 92.8% | 41.9% | 23.4% | 11.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 90.8 | 88.9 | 92.5 |
 | Norway | I | ✓ | 28.4% | 87.5% | 49.1% | 24.7% | 12.3% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 90.5 | 92.9 | 87.8 |
 | Switzerland | B | ✓ | 39.0% | 93.4% | 60.0% | 26.7% | 10.4% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 89.3 | 90.3 | 88.2 |
 | Croatia | L | ✓ | 26.5% | 89.2% | 42.4% | 19.5% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 89.3 | 89.0 | 89.5 |
 | Ecuador | E | ✓ | 34.6% | 95.9% | 50.9% | 23.3% | 11.0% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 89.5 | 86.7 | 92.0 |
 | Japan | F | ✓ | 29.2% | 80.9% | 36.5% | 19.3% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 88.7 | 88.4 | 89.1 |
 | USA | D | ✓ | 39.7% | 83.0% | 48.0% | 21.1% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 80.4 | 82.9 | 77.6 |
 | Morocco | C | ✓ | 20.0% | 83.8% | 37.5% | 17.9% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 86.7 | 77.1 | 93.8 |
 | Denmark | A* | 52.3% | <0.1% | 45.3% | 27.8% | 13.1% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 88.9 | 88.8 | 89.1 |
 | Senegal | I | ✓ | 17.4% | 76.4% | 36.3% | 16.3% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 87.1 | 81.0 | 92.1 |
 | Italy | B* | 49.9% | <0.1% | 45.9% | 29.2% | 13.5% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 88.7 | 86.8 | 90.5 |
 | Mexico | A | ✓ | 45.4% | 89.4% | 51.1% | 21.2% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 83.4 | 79.4 | 87.0 |
 | Canada | B | ✓ | 36.0% | 92.4% | 51.7% | 20.6% | 6.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 82.4 | 79.8 | 84.8 |
 | Austria | J | ✓ | 13.4% | 76.0% | 21.9% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 84.4 | 87.4 | 81.2 |
 | Paraguay | D | ✓ | 23.3% | 68.5% | 32.6% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 82.6 | 77.9 | 86.8 |
 | Australia | D | ✓ | 20.1% | 64.8% | 29.3% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 80.9 | 77.4 | 84.1 |
 | South Korea | A | ✓ | 19.9% | 69.7% | 31.3% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 80.5 | 76.4 | 84.2 |
 | Scotland | C | ✓ | 10.6% | 71.2% | 23.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 80.0 | 80.8 | 79.3 |
 | Iran | G | ✓ | 18.6% | 73.1% | 31.0% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 79.0 | 72.9 | 84.6 |
 | Turkey | D* | 41.4% | <0.1% | 29.1% | 14.4% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 83.5 | 87.8 | 78.6 |
 | Ukraine | F* | 30.6% | <0.1% | 17.8% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 80.6 | 80.0 | 81.1 |
 | Wales | B* | 39.6% | <0.1% | 30.5% | 14.0% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 78.3 | 75.8 | 80.7 |
 | Ivory Coast | E | ✓ | 6.7% | 70.6% | 19.7% | 4.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 73.8 | 71.0 | 76.5 |
 | Sweden | F* | 32.5% | <0.1% | 18.0% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 79.1 | 81.8 | 76.2 |
 | Tunisia | F | ✓ | 7.1% | 42.5% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 75.5 | 68.7 | 81.7 |
 | Egypt | G | ✓ | 11.9% | 60.3% | 20.8% | 5.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 73.7 | 67.5 | 79.6 |
 | Algeria | J | ✓ | 6.8% | 55.4% | 13.2% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 77.9 | 79.6 | 76.1 |
 | Czechia | A* | 33.0% | <0.1% | 22.5% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 77.2 | 78.4 | 76.0 |
 | DR Congo | K* | 71.4% | <0.1% | 24.7% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 71.4 | 68.0 | 74.8 |
 | Slovakia | D* | 33.0% | <0.1% | 15.8% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 73.1 | 71.8 | 74.4 |
 | Ireland | A* | 12.2% | <0.1% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 71.4 | 64.5 | 78.0 |
 | Poland | F* | 28.0% | <0.1% | 15.0% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 78.1 | 81.5 | 74.5 |
 | Panama | L | ✓ | 3.4% | 39.1% | 6.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 70.7 | 70.6 | 70.8 |
 | New Zealand | G | ✓ | 5.5% | 38.2% | 10.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 65.9 | 61.1 | 70.7 |
 | Jordan | J | ✓ | 2.6% | 32.2% | 5.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 69.4 | 66.2 | 72.5 |
 | Romania | D* | 9.4% | <0.1% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 73.7 | 72.3 | 75.1 |
 | South Africa | A | ✓ | 5.8% | 36.8% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 67.7 | 62.4 | 72.8 |
 | Kosovo | D* | 16.3% | <0.1% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 70.3 | 72.9 | 67.7 |
 | Uzbekistan | K | ✓ | 2.8% | 36.1% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 70.9 | 69.2 | 72.6 |
 | Ghana | L | ✓ | 2.9% | 33.0% | 5.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 67.8 | 62.5 | 73.0 |
 | Northern Ireland | B* | 4.3% | <0.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 68.1 | 62.0 | 73.9 |
 | Saudi Arabia | H | ✓ | 1.1% | 28.3% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 63.4 | 57.1 | 69.6 |
 | Bolivia | I* | 47.2% | <0.1% | 8.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 67.3 | 73.0 | 61.4 |
 | Albania | F* | 8.9% | <0.1% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 69.9 | 62.3 | 77.1 |
 | Iraq | I* | 47.0% | <0.1% | 6.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 61.6 | 53.9 | 69.3 |
 | Cape Verde | H | ✓ | 1.0% | 25.8% | 4.1% | 0.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 62.3 | 57.5 | 67.1 |
 | Haiti | C | ✓ | 1.1% | 16.4% | 2.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.5 |
 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | B* | 6.2% | <0.1% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 64.8 | 69.4 | 60.1 |
 | Jamaica | K* | 27.7% | <0.1% | 4.6% | 0.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 57.6 | 53.0 | 62.3 |
 | Qatar | B | ✓ | 0.8% | 10.5% | 1.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 54.0 | 57.3 | 50.7 |
 | North Macedonia | A* | 2.5% | <0.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 65.3 | 66.1 | 64.5 |
 | Curacao | E | ✓ | 0.2% | 5.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 43.5 | 42.2 | 44.9 |
 | Suriname | I* | 5.8% | <0.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 45.4 | 47.3 | 43.5 |
 | New Caledonia | K* | 0.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 28.9 | 31.9 | 26.1 |