FIFA WORLD CUP 2026
Progression Chances
Each team's probability of reaching each stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, based on 10,000 simulations.
Updated July 14, 2026
Current
| Team | RatingRating | TiltTilt | Gr.Group | Win Group | Reach R32 | Reach R16 | Reach QF | Reach SF | Reach Final | Champ.Champion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | SpainESP 2-1-0 | 98.3 | +0.6 | H | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 54.9% |
 | ArgentinaARG 3-0-0 | 97.8 | -2.6 | J | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 57.6% | 27.7% |
 | EnglandENG 2-1-0 | 96.1 | -2.7 | L | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 42.4% | 17.4% |
 | FranceFRA 3-0-0 | 96.6 | -1.5 | I | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | BelgiumBEL 1-2-0 | 92.5 | +4.3 | G | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | MoroccoMAR 2-1-0 | 90.9 | -6.6 | C | ✕ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | NorwayNOR 2-0-1 | 90.3 | +4.3 | I | ✕ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | SwitzerlandSUI 2-1-0 | 89.3 | +1.8 | B | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | BrazilBRA 2-1-0 | 96.2 | -1.1 | C | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | CanadaCAN 1-1-1 | 80.7 | -1.5 | B | ✕ | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | ColombiaCOL 2-1-0 | 94.8 | -5.4 | K | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | EgyptEGY 1-2-0 | 76.0 | -4.0 | G | ✕ | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | MexicoMEX 3-0-0 | 88.5 | -3.3 | A | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | ParaguayPAR 1-1-1 | 82.4 | -4.4 | D | ✕ | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | PortugalPOR 1-2-0 | 95.6 | +0.7 | K | ✕ | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | USAUSA 2-0-1 | 78.9 | +4.3 | D | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | AlgeriaALG 1-1-1 | 78.6 | +2.1 | J | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | AustraliaAUS 1-1-1 | 81.2 | -3.1 | D | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | AustriaAUT 1-1-1 | 83.4 | +3.8 | J | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | Bosnia and HerzegovinaBIH 1-1-1 | 65.5 | +3.6 | B | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | Cape VerdeCPV 0-3-0 | 64.1 | -3.7 | H | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | DR CongoCOD 1-1-1 | 71.9 | -3.1 | K | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | Ivory CoastCIV 2-0-1 | 76.3 | -2.4 | E | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | CroatiaCRO 2-0-1 | 87.5 | +0.9 | L | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | EcuadorECU 1-1-1 | 87.6 | -3.6 | E | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | GermanyGER 2-0-1 | 92.5 | +7.2 | E | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | GhanaGHA 1-1-1 | 68.1 | -4.3 | L | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | JapanJPN 1-2-0 | 89.6 | -0.3 | F | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | NetherlandsNED 2-1-0 | 92.9 | +4.3 | F | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | SenegalSEN 1-0-2 | 84.8 | -3.9 | I | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | South AfricaRSA 1-1-1 | 66.2 | -4.0 | A | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | SwedenSWE 1-1-1 | 79.6 | +4.1 | F | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | CuracaoCUW 0-1-2 | 49.6 | +0.1 | E | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | CzechiaCZE 0-1-2 | 73.0 | +2.5 | A | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | HaitiHTI 0-0-3 | 59.6 | +1.0 | C | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | IranIRN 0-3-0 | 79.9 | -4.6 | G | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | IraqIRQ 0-0-3 | 58.0 | -4.9 | I | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | JordanJOR 0-0-3 | 67.8 | -1.9 | J | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | South KoreaKOR 1-0-2 | 78.7 | -3.3 | A | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | New ZealandNZL 0-1-2 | 61.8 | -1.7 | G | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | PanamaPAN 0-0-3 | 68.4 | -0.3 | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | QatarQAT 0-1-2 | 51.4 | +3.0 | B | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | Saudi ArabiaKSA 0-2-1 | 62.3 | -4.6 | H | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | ScotlandSCO 1-0-2 | 78.9 | +0.6 | C | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | TunisiaTUN 0-0-3 | 68.2 | -3.6 | F | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | TurkeyTUR 1-0-2 | 83.1 | +4.3 | D | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | UruguayURU 0-2-1 | 89.4 | -2.3 | H | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
 | UzbekistanUZB 0-0-3 | 66.0 | +0.0 | K | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |